A vote for fill-in-the-blank conservative third-party candidate -- be it Bob Barr, Chuck Baldwin, or Pat Buchanan -- is a vote for the Democrats. This argument has kept many a disgruntled conservative on the Republican reservation, no matter how hard they had to hold their nose in November.
For it wasn't John McCain, George W. Bush, or his father who rallied the conservative faithful to pull the Republican lever as much as Barack Obama, John Kerry, Al Gore, Bill Clinton, and Michael Dukakis. In each case, some additional incentive was provided in the form of running mates Sarah Palin, Dick Cheney, and Dan Quayle (imagine trying to get out the conservative vote with McCain-Lieberman or Bush-Ridge). But fear of the Democrats has been employed successfully on behalf of Republicans as liberal as Arnold Schwarzenegger, Lincoln Chafee, and Arlen Specter -- only the first of whom remains in the GOP today -- who were sometimes just millimeters to the right of their Democratic opponents.
Whether or not Doug Hoffman wins next Tuesday's special election in New York's 23rd congressional district, that argument may sound a lot less persuasive to conservatives because of his candidacy. Sarah Palin, the GOP's 2008 vice-presidential nominee, has endorsed Hoffman over the liberal Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava. So have Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, Republican ex-senators turned presidential prospects Fred Thompson and Rick Santorum.
Sitting members of Congress have also crossed party lines to support the Conservative Party nominee over the Republican: Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Reps. Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota, Tom Cole of Oklahoma, Todd Tihart of Kansas, and Dana Rohrabacher of California. Cole, a former political consultant, chaired the House Republicans' national campaign committee during the 2008 election cycle.
In 2012, Republican presidential contenders who stuck with the GOP nominee -- or stayed neutral like Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee -- may find their party loyalty as popular among primary voters as Gerald Ford's support for the Panama Canal Treaty was in his 1976 fight with Ronald Reagan. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has already faced nearly as much criticism for his persistence in backing Scozzafava as Hillary Clinton got from Democratic primary voters for her refusal to repent of her Iraq war vote.
